Chaves 1-2 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chaves at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chaves vs Moreirense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira plays host to Chaves versus Moreirense in Primeira Liga (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Current Form
Chaves's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Chaves's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Moreirense (all games): 0W 1D 1L across their last 2 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Form favours the hosts. Chaves's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Moreirense's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2022, ended Chaves 0–1 Moreirense — a Moreirense win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.51 xG and Moreirense 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 1.020 / defence 1.272 | Moreirense attack 0.722 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.172. Moreirense's attack rating of 0.722 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Chaves's defence rating of 1.272 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Moreirense's projected output up. Data: built from Chaves's last 37 games and Moreirense's last 2.
Result probabilities: Chaves 47% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 27%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.12 | Draw 3.89 | Moreirense 3.70. Chaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chaves at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chaves if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 4 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 47% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Chaves 1.51 / Moreirense 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 1.020 / def 1.272 | Moreirense attack 0.722 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Chaves (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Moreirense xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chaves vs Moreirense FAQs
What time does Chaves vs Moreirense kick off?
Chaves vs Moreirense kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Moreirense?
Chaves 1 - 2 Moreirense.
Where is Chaves vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Moreirense part of?
Chaves vs Moreirense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 4) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 47% chance of winning, Moreirense a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Chaves and Moreirense will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chaves vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chaves's attack at 1.02x the league average against Moreirense's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Moreirense's attack (0.72x) against Chaves's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Chaves's last 37 games and Moreirense's last 2 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.89
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.59
1.08
Moreirense xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chaves vs Moreirense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Chaves and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Chaves and 1.08 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Chaves have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five.
Moreirense's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D.
Put side by side, Moreirense are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chaves.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 4.50 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Early Season
Moreirense
Early Season
Chaves (Home) vs Moreirense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chaves
Early Season
Moreirense
Early Season
❓ Chaves vs Moreirense Form FAQs
What form are Chaves and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Chaves or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Moreirense in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Moreirense have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chaves have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Moreirense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Chaves
0
Draws
3
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Chaves vs Moreirense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Moreirense?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Chaves have won 1, Moreirense have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Moreirense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: Moreirense 1-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Moreirense?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chaves vs Moreirense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chaves and Moreirense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chaves's recent matches and 50% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chaves and Moreirense matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Chaves's matches and 50% of Moreirense's.
Do Chaves and Moreirense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Chaves's recent matches and 0% of Moreirense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Moreirense defy the odds to beat Chaves 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Chaves 1-2 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.51 xG and Moreirense 1.08 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Moreirense outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 1.02 / defence 1.27 against Moreirense attack 0.72 / defence 0.95, drawn from 37/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 47% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 27%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Moreirense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 100%, Moreirense 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Chaves conceded 2 against a 4.50 average — tighter than their form line. Moreirense scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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