Chaves 2-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chaves at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Maritimo travel to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira to take on Chaves. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 February 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira this season: 2W 5D 2L from 9 home games — 1.22 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Maritimo — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Chaves) versus 1.30 (Maritimo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chaves, 0 for Maritimo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Chaves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Chaves in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Maritimo in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 50% versus Maritimo 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chaves 30% | Maritimo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.23 xG and Maritimo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.707 / defence 1.160 | Maritimo attack 0.798 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.020. Chaves's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Chaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Chaves games / 52 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 43% | Draw 29% | Maritimo 28%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Maritimo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chaves as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chaves 56% | Maritimo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Feb 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 43% | Draw 29% | Maritimo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Chaves 1.23 / Maritimo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.707 / def 1.160 | Maritimo attack 0.798 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Chaves (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Maritimo xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Maritimo kick off?
Chaves vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 5 February 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Maritimo?
Chaves 2 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is Chaves vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Maritimo part of?
Chaves vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 43% chance of winning, Maritimo a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chaves and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Maritimo?
Record (1 meetings): Chaves 1W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are Chaves and Maritimo in?
Chaves (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Maritimo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chaves's attack rating (0.71) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.46
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.17
0.94
Maritimo xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
8%
12.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.7 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Chaves and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Chaves and 0.94 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chaves's recent record stands at 6W 7D 7L from 20 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 12L across 20 games — 0.70 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chaves by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Maritimo heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chaves have managed 2W 5D 2L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Maritimo's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 0.60 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 3W 5D 12L in their last 20 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Maritimo away?
Chaves's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.22 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Chaves
0
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Maritimo?
From 2 meetings on record, Chaves have won 2, Maritimo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2023, when Chaves 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Maritimo?
Chaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 56%, Maritimo 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Chaves and 56% for Maritimo.
On the defensive side: Chaves have failed to score in 33% of games; Maritimo in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Chaves's recent matches and 44% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Chaves's recent games and 56% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Maritimo tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chaves edge out Maritimo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat Maritimo 2-1 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.23 xG and Maritimo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.71 / defence 1.16 against Maritimo attack 0.80 / defence 1.24, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 43% | Draw 29% | Maritimo 28%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 30%, Maritimo 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Maritimo's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chaves arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.