Chaves 3-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Chaves welcome GIL Vicente to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves's home record at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira: 1W 3D 1L from 5 Primeira Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Chaves) versus 0.90 (GIL Vicente). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Chaves register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, GIL Vicente in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Chaves trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
GIL Vicente trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 36% versus GIL Vicente 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chaves 18% | GIL Vicente 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.17 xG and GIL Vicente 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.759 / defence 1.077 | GIL Vicente attack 1.034 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.102. Chaves's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Chaves games / 43 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 35% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 38%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | GIL Vicente 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Chaves 60% | GIL Vicente 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 35% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Chaves 1.17 / GIL Vicente 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.759 / def 1.077 | GIL Vicente attack 1.034 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.23
GIL Vicente xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Chaves vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs GIL Vicente?
Chaves 3 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Chaves vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs GIL Vicente part of?
Chaves vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 35% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chaves and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and GIL Vicente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chaves and GIL Vicente in?
Chaves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chaves's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
35%
2.88
28%
3.61
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.40
1.23
GIL Vicente xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Chaves and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Chaves and 1.23 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 4W 3D 4L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente's form line: 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.36 PPG, GIL Vicente on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L).
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.00 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or GIL Vicente away?
Chaves's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.20 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chaves's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chaves
2
Draws
0
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and GIL Vicente?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 2, GIL Vicente have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2024, when GIL Vicente 0-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and GIL Vicente?
Chaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 60%, GIL Vicente 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Chaves) and 80% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Chaves's games and 60% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chaves's recent games and 80% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chaves cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat GIL Vicente 3-1 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.17 xG and GIL Vicente 1.23 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Chaves beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against GIL Vicente attack 1.03 / defence 1.17, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 35% | Draw 28% | GIL Vicente 38%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Chaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 18%, GIL Vicente 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.36 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chaves win broke the near-deadlock. Chaves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.