Chaves 1-3 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chaves at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chaves host Casa Pia at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 December 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Chaves — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves's home record at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Chaves are significantly better at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Chaves) versus 0.90 (Casa Pia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Chaves have won 2, Casa Pia 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Chaves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chaves in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 51% versus Casa Pia 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 47% | Casa Pia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.88 xG and Casa Pia 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 1.100 / defence 1.248 | Casa Pia attack 0.843 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.235. Data: 47 Chaves games / 47 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 51% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 26%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Casa Pia 3.85. Chaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chaves as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Chaves 60% | Casa Pia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 51% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Chaves 1.88 / Casa Pia 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 1.100 / def 1.248 | Casa Pia attack 0.843 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Chaves (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Casa Pia xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Casa Pia kick off?
Chaves vs Casa Pia kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Casa Pia?
Chaves 1 - 3 Casa Pia.
Where is Chaves vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Casa Pia part of?
Chaves vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 51% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Chaves and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Casa Pia?
Record (2 meetings): Chaves 2W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 0W.
What form are Chaves and Casa Pia in?
Chaves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chaves's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Casa Pia's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Casa Pia's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.43
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Chaves xG
Total xG
3.18
1.30
Casa Pia xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
4%
24.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Chaves and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Chaves and 1.30 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 15W 11D 21L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia's form line: 14W 12D 21L from 47 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.19 PPG, Casa Pia on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.30 PPG from 23 outings (8W 6D 9L).
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 7W 4D 12L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 0.87 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 games (1.19 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 14W 12D 21L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or Casa Pia away?
Chaves's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.30 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Chaves or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chaves and Casa Pia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Casa Pia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Chaves's record when hosting Casa Pia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chaves
0
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Casa Pia?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 2, Casa Pia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Casa Pia 3-1 Chaves.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 65%, Casa Pia 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chaves) and 44% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Casa Pia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Chaves's recent matches and 44% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Chaves's recent games and 44% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Chaves 1-3 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 14, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.88 xG and Casa Pia 1.30 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Chaves fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Casa Pia outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 1.10 / defence 1.25 against Casa Pia attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 51% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 26%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 47%, Casa Pia 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Casa Pia's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.19 PPG, Casa Pia 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Casa Pia win broke the near-deadlock. Chaves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.