Casa Pia 3-1 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Moreirense at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Moreirense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Casa Pia host Moreirense at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Casa Pia's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Moreirense — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Moreirense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Moreirense away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Moreirense — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Casa Pia's 20% and Moreirense's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Casa Pia have won 1, Moreirense 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Moreirense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 37% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Moreirense in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 40% versus Moreirense 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 45% | Moreirense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.98 xG and Moreirense 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.695 / defence 1.049 | Moreirense attack 0.973 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.290 / away 1.151. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Casa Pia games / 38 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 30% | Draw 29% | Moreirense 40%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Moreirense 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Moreirense at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 20% | Moreirense 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 30% | Draw 29% | Moreirense 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Casa Pia 0.98 / Moreirense 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.695 / def 1.049 | Moreirense attack 0.973 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.290 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Moreirense xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Moreirense kick off?
Casa Pia vs Moreirense kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Casa Pia 3 - 1 Moreirense.
Where is Casa Pia vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Moreirense part of?
Casa Pia vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 30% chance of winning, Moreirense a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Casa Pia and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Moreirense?
Record (2 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 0 | Moreirense 1W.
What form are Casa Pia and Moreirense in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Moreirense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Casa Pia's attack rating (0.69) and Moreirense's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
30%
3.29
29%
3.41
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.16
1.18
Moreirense xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.64
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.6 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.18 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 11W 8D 19L from 38 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Moreirense, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 12L across 38 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Moreirense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Moreirense by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Casa Pia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 3W 5D 11L from 19 games — 0.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Moreirense's away record stands at 9W 3D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.13 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Early Season
Moreirense
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 18W 8D 12L in their last 38 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Moreirense away?
Moreirense's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.74 PPG; Moreirense away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Moreirense in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jan 2024, when Casa Pia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Moreirense specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
1
Draws
3
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Moreirense?
From 6 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Moreirense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Casa Pia 1-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Moreirense?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia see a goal before the break in 37% of their matches.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Casa Pia 32% BTTS, Moreirense 26%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 26% for Casa Pia and 42% for Moreirense.
On the defensive side: Casa Pia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Moreirense in 42%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 58% of games; Moreirense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 26% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Casa Pia's recent games and 42% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Moreirense tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 37% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Moreirense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Moreirense 3-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.98 xG and Moreirense 1.18 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Casa Pia beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.69 / defence 1.05 against Moreirense attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 30% | Draw 29% | Moreirense 40%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 45%, Moreirense 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Moreirense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Casa Pia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm. Moreirense (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.