Casa Pia 1-3 Estoril – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Casa Pia at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Casa Pia face Estoril.

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Analysis

Estoril make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Tuesday 29 April 2025 at 21:30 UK time.

Form

Casa Pia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Casa Pia's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Casa Pia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Estoril have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Estoril away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Casa Pia, 1.20 for Estoril — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Casa Pia's last 10 home games and Estoril's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Casa Pia's games and 70% of Estoril's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Estoril edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2024, ended Casa Pia 2–0 Estoril — a Casa Pia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Casa Pia — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Estoril — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 50% versus Estoril 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 44% | Estoril 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.57 xG and Estoril 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.978 / defence 0.907 | Estoril attack 1.171 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.192. Estoril's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Casa Pia's projected output up. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 64 games and Estoril's last 64.

Result probabilities: Casa Pia 45% | Draw 25% | Estoril 31%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 2.25 | Draw 4.04 | Estoril 3.26. Casa Pia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Casa Pia are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Casa Pia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Casa Pia's last 10 home games and Estoril's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 70% (last 10 home games) | Estoril 70% (last 10 away games).

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