Boavista 2-2 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boavista vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vizela make the trip to Estádio do Bessa Século XXI to face Boavista in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Boavista's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Boavista, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boavista's home record at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Vizela have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Vizela have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Boavista's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Vizela's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Boavista lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Boavista goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Vizela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Boavista 64% and Vizela 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 50% | Vizela 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.17 xG and Vizela 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.931 / defence 1.068 | Vizela attack 0.942 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.060. Data: 44 Boavista games / 44 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 38% | Draw 29% | Vizela 33%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Vizela 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boavista as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boavista if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Boavista 50% | Vizela 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 38% | Draw 29% | Vizela 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Boavista 1.17 / Vizela 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.931 / def 1.068 | Vizela attack 0.942 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Boavista (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Vizela xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Vizela kick off?
Boavista vs Vizela kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Vizela?
Boavista 2 - 2 Vizela.
Where is Boavista vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Vizela part of?
Boavista vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 38% chance of winning, Vizela a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Boavista and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Vizela?
Record (2 meetings): Boavista 0W | Draws 2 | Vizela 0W.
What form are Boavista and Vizela in?
Boavista (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Vizela (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Boavista's attack rating (0.93) and Vizela's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.94x) against Boavista's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.47
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.24
1.07
Vizela xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Boavista and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Boavista and 1.07 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Boavista's recent record stands at 12W 18D 14L from 44 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Boavista is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 20L across 44 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Boavista against 1.00 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Boavista have managed 7W 11D 4L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vizela's away record stands at 5W 6D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boavista come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boavista are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.00 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Vizela in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 12W 18D 14L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Vizela have gone 10W 14D 20L in their last 44 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Vizela away?
Boavista's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.45 PPG; Vizela away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Boavista won 1-4 on 14 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Boavista
5
Draws
0
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, Boavista have won 1, Vizela have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Boavista 2-2 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Vizela?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 59%, Vizela 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Boavista) and 59% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: Vizela in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Vizela?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Boavista's games and 64% of Vizela's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boavista vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Boavista's recent games and 59% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Vizela tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Vizela in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Boavista and Vizela share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 11, as Boavista and Vizela drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.17 xG and Vizela 1.07 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Boavista beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vizela outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Vizela attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 38% | Draw 29% | Vizela 33%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 50%, Vizela 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Vizela's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 1.23 PPG, Vizela 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Boavista (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.