Boavista 1-0 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Boavista at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio do Bessa Século XXI plays host to Boavista versus Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 5 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Boavista (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Boavista have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Boavista have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pacos Ferreira have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacos Ferreira's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Boavista. A 0.90 PPG lead over Pacos Ferreira (1.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Boavista 1W, Pacos Ferreira 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Boavista goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Pacos Ferreira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 63% versus Pacos Ferreira 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 47% | Pacos Ferreira 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.33 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.929 / defence 1.178 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.912 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.172. Data: 38 Boavista games / 38 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boavista 39% | Draw 26% | Pacos Ferreira 35%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Pacos Ferreira 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Boavista as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boavista if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Boavista 60% | Pacos Ferreira 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Monday 5 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 39% | Draw 26% | Pacos Ferreira 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Boavista 1.33 / Pacos Ferreira 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.929 / def 1.178 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.912 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Boavista (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Pacos Ferreira xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 5 September 2022 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira?
Boavista 1 - 0 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 39% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Boavista and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (2 meetings): Boavista 1W | Draws 1 | Pacos Ferreira 0W.
What form are Boavista and Pacos Ferreira in?
Boavista (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Boavista's attack rating (0.93) and Pacos Ferreira's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.91x) against Boavista's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
39%
2.59
26%
3.79
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.59
1.26
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Boavista and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Boavista and 1.26 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Boavista come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 17D 12L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Boavista, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pacos Ferreira sit at 1.00 PPG from 38 outings (9W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Boavista against 1.00 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Boavista's home form reads 5W 10D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacos Ferreira have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boavista come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Boavista are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.82 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Early Season
Pacos Ferreira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boavista and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 9W 17D 12L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 9W 11D 18L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
Boavista's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 1.32 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Boavista go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Boavista won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Boavista
1
Draws
0
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Boavista have won 3, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Boavista and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 1-3 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Pacos Ferreira?
Boavista have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 32% of those situations.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 58%, Pacos Ferreira 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Boavista and 26% for Pacos Ferreira.
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira in 32%; Pacos Ferreira in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boavista play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Boavista's recent matches and 32% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Boavista vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Boavista's recent games and 26% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Boavista have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Boavista edge out Pacos Ferreira 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boavista beat Pacos Ferreira 1-0 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.33 xG and Pacos Ferreira 1.26 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pacos Ferreira landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.93 / defence 1.18 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 39% | Draw 26% | Pacos Ferreira 35%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 47%, Pacos Ferreira 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 1.16 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boavista win broke the near-deadlock. Boavista (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.