Boavista 1-3 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Boavista face Arouca.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Boavista and Arouca meet at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Primeira Liga (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 January 2025 at 20:30 UK time.
Current Form
Boavista's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Boavista at home: 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Arouca (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Arouca have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Boavista against 0.60 for Arouca. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Arouca edge it 3 wins to 2, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Boavista 1–2 Arouca — a Arouca win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boavista 56% versus Arouca 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boavista 48% | Arouca 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boavista 1.06 xG and Arouca 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boavista attack 0.583 / defence 1.094 | Arouca attack 0.827 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.158. Boavista's attack rating of 0.583 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Arouca's defence rating of 1.302 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Boavista's projected output up. Data: built from Boavista's last 50 games and Arouca's last 50.
Result probabilities: Boavista 35% | Draw 30% | Arouca 35%. Fair-value odds: Boavista 2.85 | Draw 3.31 | Arouca 2.88. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Boavista 35% and Arouca 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Boavista 40% (last 10 home games) | Arouca 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boavista vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 17 | Venue: Estádio do Bessa Século XXI • Kick-off: Saturday 4 January 2025 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boavista 35% | Draw 30% | Arouca 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Boavista 1.06 / Arouca 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Boavista attack 0.583 / def 1.094 | Arouca attack 0.827 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Boavista and Arouca level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Boavista xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Arouca xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Boavista vs Arouca FAQs
What time does Boavista vs Arouca kick off?
Boavista vs Arouca kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What was the final score in Boavista vs Arouca?
Boavista 1 - 3 Arouca.
Where is Boavista vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI.
What competition is Boavista vs Arouca part of?
Boavista vs Arouca is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 17) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Boavista vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Boavista a 35% chance of winning, Arouca a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Boavista vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Boavista and Arouca will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Boavista vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Boavista's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.83x) against Boavista's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Boavista's last 50 games and Arouca's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
35%
2.85
30%
3.31
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Boavista xG
Total xG
2.10
1.05
Arouca xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Boavista vs Arouca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Boavista vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Boavista and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Boavista and 1.05 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Boavista vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Boavista's recent record stands at 9W 17D 24L from 50 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 24L across 50 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Boavista against 1.16 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Boavista have managed 4W 11D 9L from their last 24 home games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 7W 4D 13L across their last 24 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Boavista are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.28 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boavista
Blended
Arouca
Blended
Boavista (Home) vs Arouca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Boavista
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Boavista vs Arouca Form FAQs
What form are Boavista and Arouca in coming into this match?
Boavista have gone 9W 17D 24L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while Arouca have gone 16W 10D 24L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boavista at home or Arouca away?
Arouca's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boavista at home: 0.96 PPG; Arouca away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Arouca have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won Boavista 0-4 Arouca on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boavista have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Boavista
1
Draws
5
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Boavista vs Arouca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Boavista and Arouca?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Boavista have won 2, Arouca have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Boavista and Arouca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2025: Arouca 4-1 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Boavista and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boavista 54%, Arouca 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Boavista) and 62% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Boavista have failed to score in 42% of games; Arouca in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boavista home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Boavista vs Arouca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Boavista and Arouca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Boavista's recent matches and 54% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Boavista and Arouca matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Boavista's recent games and 62% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boavista and Arouca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Boavista's recent matches and 75% of Arouca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Arouca cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Boavista.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arouca beat Boavista 1-3 at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boavista 1.06 xG and Arouca 1.05 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Arouca outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boavista attack 0.58 / defence 1.09 against Arouca attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boavista 35% | Draw 30% | Arouca 35%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boavista 48%, Arouca 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boavista's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Boavista 0.88 PPG, Arouca 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. Boavista (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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