Benfica 1-1 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Benfica at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Moreirense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica plays host to Benfica versus Moreirense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 15 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benfica have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Benfica have gone 6W 0D 2L this season (8 games, 2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.88 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Moreirense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Moreirense have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Benfica's favour (1.90 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Benfica lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Moreirense half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 59% versus Moreirense 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 65% | Moreirense 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.24 xG and Moreirense 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.647 / defence 1.026 | Moreirense attack 0.585 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.404. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.647 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 Benfica games / 17 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 69% | Draw 19% | Moreirense 12%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Moreirense 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 62% | Moreirense 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 69% | Draw 19% | Moreirense 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 51% | xG Benfica 2.24 / Moreirense 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.647 / def 1.026 | Moreirense attack 0.585 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Benfica (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Moreirense xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Moreirense kick off?
Benfica vs Moreirense kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Moreirense?
Benfica 1 - 1 Moreirense.
Where is Benfica vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Moreirense part of?
Benfica vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 69% chance of winning, Moreirense a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benfica and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Moreirense?
Record (1 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 0 | Moreirense 0W.
What form are Benfica and Moreirense in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Moreirense (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benfica's attacking strength (1.65x league average) is weighed against Moreirense's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. Flip it around — Moreirense's attack (0.58x) against Benfica's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
69%
1.46
19%
5.24
12%
8.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.08
0.84
Moreirense xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
8.14
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
1%
76.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Benfica and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Benfica and 0.84 for Moreirense, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Moreirense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benfica come into this having played 17 games, going 13W 1D 3L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Moreirense sit at 0.88 PPG from 17 outings (3W 6D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.47 PPG clear of Moreirense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Benfica's home form reads 6W 0D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Moreirense have taken 0.62 points per game from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benfica are averaging 2.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.00 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 13W 1D 3L in their last 17 games (2.35 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Moreirense away?
Benfica's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.25 PPG; Moreirense away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Benfica or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Moreirense in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Benfica go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Moreirense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Benfica
3
Draws
0
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Moreirense?
From 8 meetings on record, Benfica have won 5, Moreirense have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Benfica 4-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Moreirense?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 62%, Moreirense 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Benfica) and 38% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Moreirense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Benfica's recent matches and 38% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Benfica's recent games and 38% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Moreirense tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica and Moreirense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica and Moreirense finished level at 1-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.24 xG and Moreirense 0.84 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Benfica fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.65 / defence 1.03 against Moreirense attack 0.58 / defence 1.18, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 69% | Draw 19% | Moreirense 12%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 65%, Moreirense 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Moreirense's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.