Benfica 3-0 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Moreirense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica plays host to Benfica versus Moreirense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benfica have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Benfica have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Benfica are significantly better at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica than their overall form suggests.
Moreirense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Moreirense have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Benfica's favour (2.20 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Benfica lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Benfica half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Moreirense half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 46% versus Moreirense 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 61% | Moreirense 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.98 xG and Moreirense 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.468 / defence 0.656 | Moreirense attack 0.656 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.281. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.468 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence rating of 0.656 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Benfica games / 28 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 71% | Draw 20% | Moreirense 9%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.41 | Draw 5.00 | Moreirense 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (71%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 50% | Moreirense 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 71% | Draw 20% | Moreirense 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 37% | xG Benfica 1.98 / Moreirense 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.468 / def 0.656 | Moreirense attack 0.656 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Benfica (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Moreirense xG
37%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Moreirense kick off?
Benfica vs Moreirense kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Moreirense?
Benfica 3 - 0 Moreirense.
Where is Benfica vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Moreirense part of?
Benfica vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 71% chance of winning, Moreirense a 9% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Benfica and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Moreirense?
Record (3 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 2 | Moreirense 0W.
What form are Benfica and Moreirense in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Moreirense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benfica's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Moreirense's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Moreirense's attack (0.66x) against Benfica's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.55.
These ratings are built from 62/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.6%), 3-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
71%
1.41
20%
5.03
9%
11.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.6%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.53
0.55
Moreirense xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
11.15
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
41%
2.44
1%
80.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.6 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Benfica and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Benfica and 0.55 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Moreirense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benfica come into this having played 28 games, going 21W 4D 3L for 2.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Moreirense sit at 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Moreirense — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Benfica's home form reads 12W 2D 0L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Moreirense have taken 1.50 points per game from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benfica are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.07 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Moreirense in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Current Season
Moreirense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 21W 4D 3L in their last 28 games (2.39 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 12W 7D 9L in their last 28 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Moreirense away?
Benfica's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.71 PPG; Moreirense away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Benfica or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Moreirense in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Benfica go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Moreirense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Benfica
3
Draws
0
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Moreirense?
From 8 meetings on record, Benfica have won 5, Moreirense have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Benfica 4-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Moreirense?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benfica see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 43% (Benfica) and 21% (Moreirense) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Benfica) and 36% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Moreirense in 43%; Moreirense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Benfica's recent matches and 21% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Benfica's recent games and 36% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Moreirense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Moreirense 3-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.98 xG and Moreirense 0.55 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.47 / defence 0.66 against Moreirense attack 0.66 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 71% | Draw 20% | Moreirense 9%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 61%, Moreirense 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Moreirense's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.54. Form held, and they took the win. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.