Benfica 5-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Benfica at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Chaves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benfica and Chaves meet at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Benfica's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 7W 2D 1L at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.30 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this season.
Chaves (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chaves's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Benfica. A 1.30 PPG lead over Chaves (2.80 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Benfica — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Chaves — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Benfica 25% | Chaves 42%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benfica 50% | Chaves 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.91 xG and Chaves 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.612 / defence 1.016 | Chaves attack 0.873 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.093. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.612 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Benfica games / 10 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 59% | Draw 22% | Chaves 19%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Chaves 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Benfica 60% | Chaves 17% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 59% | Draw 22% | Chaves 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Benfica 1.91 / Chaves 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.612 / def 1.016 | Chaves attack 0.873 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Benfica (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Chaves xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Chaves kick off?
Benfica vs Chaves kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Chaves?
Benfica 5 - 0 Chaves.
Where is Benfica vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Chaves part of?
Benfica vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 59% chance of winning, Chaves a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Benfica and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Chaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benfica and Chaves in?
Benfica (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Chaves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.61) and Chaves's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chaves's attack (0.87x) against Benfica's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
59%
1.68
22%
4.56
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.88
0.97
Chaves xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
3%
36.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Benfica and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Benfica and 0.97 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Chaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benfica's recent record stands at 10W 1D 1L from 12 games, a 2.58 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 4L across 12 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Chaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chaves heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chaves's away record stands at 3W 0D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benfica are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.08 scored and 0.92 conceded. Benfica's scoring rate against Chaves's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Chaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Chaves in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 10W 1D 1L in their last 12 games (2.58 PPG), while Chaves have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Chaves away?
Benfica's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.50 PPG; Chaves away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Benfica or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Chaves in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Benfica have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benfica won 5-0 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benfica have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Benfica
0
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 3, Chaves have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when Benfica 1-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Chaves?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Benfica) and 17% (Chaves) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Benfica) and 33% (Chaves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chaves in 33%; Chaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Benfica's recent matches and 17% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Benfica's matches and 33% of Chaves's.
Do Benfica and Chaves tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Chaves in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Chaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Chaves 5-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 11, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.91 xG and Chaves 0.97 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chaves landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.61 / defence 1.02 against Chaves attack 0.87 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 59% | Draw 22% | Chaves 19%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 50%, Chaves 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chaves's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.