Belenenses 2-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Belenenses vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Arouca travel to Estádio Nacional to take on Belenenses. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 January 2022, 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Belenenses stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Belenenses have posted 1W 2D 4L at Estádio Nacional — 0.71 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Arouca have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 4L across 8 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Belenenses) versus 0.90 (Arouca). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Belenenses in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Arouca in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Belenenses 33% versus Arouca 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Belenenses 27% | Arouca 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Belenenses 0.93 xG and Arouca 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Belenenses attack 0.671 / defence 1.515 | Arouca attack 0.682 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.416. Belenenses's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Belenenses's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Belenenses games / 16 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Belenenses 23% | Draw 28% | Arouca 49%. Fair-value odds: Belenenses 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Arouca 2.04. Arouca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arouca at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arouca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Belenenses 57% | Arouca 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Belenenses vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Nacional • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Belenenses 23% | Draw 28% | Arouca 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Belenenses 0.93 / Arouca 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Belenenses attack 0.671 / def 1.515 | Arouca attack 0.682 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Arouca (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Belenenses xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Arouca xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Belenenses vs Arouca kick off?
Belenenses vs Arouca kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Estádio Nacional.
What was the final score in Belenenses vs Arouca?
Belenenses 2 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Belenenses vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nacional.
What competition is Belenenses vs Arouca part of?
Belenenses vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Belenenses vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Belenenses a 23% chance of winning, Arouca a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Belenenses vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Belenenses and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Belenenses vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Arouca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Belenenses and Arouca in?
Belenenses (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Arouca (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Belenenses's attack rating (0.67) and Arouca's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Arouca's attack versus Belenenses's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
23%
4.29
28%
3.62
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Belenenses xG
Total xG
2.39
1.46
Arouca xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
5%
18.52
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.4 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Belenenses vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Belenenses and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Belenenses and 1.46 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Belenenses vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, Belenenses have picked up 0.53 PPG on a 1W 5D 9L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca's form line: 3W 5D 7L from 15 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Arouca are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Belenenses.
Venue Form
On home soil, Belenenses have posted 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
On the road, Arouca have gone 0W 4D 3L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Belenenses are averaging 0.47 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.07 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arouca in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Belenenses
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Belenenses and Arouca in coming into this match?
Belenenses have gone 1W 5D 9L in their last 15 games (0.53 PPG), while Arouca have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Belenenses at home or Arouca away?
Belenenses's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Belenenses at home: 0.71 PPG; Arouca away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Belenenses
1
Draws
0
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Arouca?
From 2 meetings on record, Belenenses have won 1, Arouca have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Belenenses and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2022, when Arouca 0-0 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Belenenses and Arouca?
Belenenses have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Belenenses 57%, Arouca 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Belenenses) and 57% (Arouca).
On the defensive side: Belenenses have failed to score in 43% of games; Arouca in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Belenenses home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Belenenses play Arouca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Belenenses's games and 71% of Arouca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Belenenses vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Belenenses's recent games and 57% of Arouca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Belenenses and Arouca tend to score early?
Belenenses have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Arouca in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Belenenses defy the odds to beat Arouca 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Belenenses beat Arouca 2-1 at Estádio Nacional, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Belenenses 0.93 xG and Arouca 1.46 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Belenenses beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Belenenses attack 0.67 / defence 1.51 against Arouca attack 0.68 / defence 1.23, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Belenenses 23% | Draw 28% | Arouca 49%, with Arouca to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Belenenses win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Belenenses 27%, Arouca 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Belenenses's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Arouca's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Arouca arrived the stronger side — 0.93 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with Belenenses winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Belenenses (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.