Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa meet at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 February 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Zaglebie Lubin (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 4W 1D 4L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.44 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 1W 0D 8L from 9 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 0.60 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 50% versus Legia Warszawa 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 61% | Legia Warszawa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.54 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.930 / defence 1.303 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.708 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.192. Legia Warszawa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Zaglebie Lubin games / 18 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 48% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 27%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Legia Warszawa 3.70. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 67% | Legia Warszawa 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 48% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.54 / Legia Warszawa 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.930 / def 1.303 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.708 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Legia Warszawa xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Zaglebie Lubin 1 - 3 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 48% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.71x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
48%
2.10
25%
3.94
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.64
1.10
Legia Warszawa xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
6%
17.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.10 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 6W 2D 10L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 5W 0D 13L from 18 games, 0.83 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 0.83 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 0D 8L from 9 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.06 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 6W 2D 10L in their last 18 games (1.11 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 0D 13L in their last 18 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.44 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 0-3 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
9
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 67%, Legia Warszawa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 44% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 44% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-3 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.54 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.10 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.10 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.93 / defence 1.30 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.71 / defence 1.35, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 48% | Draw 25% | Legia Warszawa 27%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 61%, Legia Warszawa 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.11 PPG, Legia Warszawa 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.