Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa meet at KGHM Zaglebie Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 October 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Zaglebie Lubin (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at KGHM Zaglebie Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.50 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Zaglebie Lubin register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Legia Warszawa in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 7 meetings, Legia Warszawa have the stronger historical record — 7 wins to Zaglebie Lubin's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Legia Warszawa have won 7 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 57% versus Legia Warszawa 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 54% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 2.15 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.302 / defence 1.138 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.020 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.244. Zaglebie Lubin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Zaglebie Lubin games / 44 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 53% | Draw 21% | Legia Warszawa 25%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Legia Warszawa 4.00. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 80% | Legia Warszawa 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Oct 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 53% | Draw 21% | Legia Warszawa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 2.15 / Legia Warszawa 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.302 / def 1.138 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.020 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Legia Warszawa xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 19 October 2025 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Zaglebie Lubin 3 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 53% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Record (7 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 0W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 7W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.02x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
53%
1.88
21%
4.67
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
3.59
1.44
Legia Warszawa xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
12%
8.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
3%
33.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.44 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 13W 10D 21L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 19W 12D 13L from 44 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zaglebie Lubin.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 6D 9L from 22 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.66 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 19W 12D 13L in their last 44 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.36 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 0-3 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
9
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 59%, Legia Warszawa 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 54% (Legia Warszawa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Legia Warszawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 64% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Zaglebie Lubin's matches and 54% of Legia Warszawa's.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Legia Warszawa 3-1 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 2.15 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.44 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.30 / defence 1.14 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 53% | Draw 21% | Legia Warszawa 25%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 54%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.