Wisla Plock 2-0 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Wisla Krakow travel to Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this season: 4W 1D 0L from 5 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Krakow — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.30 PPG, Wisla Krakow 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Wisla Krakow in-play tendencies (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 50% versus Wisla Krakow 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 58% | Wisla Krakow 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.74 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.114 / defence 0.780 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.764 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.249. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Wisla Plock's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 12 Wisla Plock games / 12 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 61% | Draw 24% | Wisla Krakow 15%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Wisla Krakow 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 20% | Wisla Krakow 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 61% | Draw 24% | Wisla Krakow 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Wisla Plock 1.74 / Wisla Krakow 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.114 / def 0.780 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.764 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Wisla Krakow xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Wisla Plock 2 - 0 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 61% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (1.11) and Wisla Krakow's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.6%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
61%
1.65
24%
4.12
15%
6.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.48
0.74
Wisla Krakow xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
6.63
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
3%
37.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 10.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.74 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wisla Plock come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 1D 7L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Krakow sit at 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.08 PPG, Wisla Krakow on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wisla Plock's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wisla Krakow have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.17 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.60 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Wisla Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Wisla Krakow in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2022, when Wisla Krakow 3-4 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Wisla Plock 20% BTTS, Wisla Krakow 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wisla Plock) and 60% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Wisla Krakow in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 40% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 60% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Plock cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Wisla Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Wisla Krakow 2-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.74 xG and Wisla Krakow 0.74 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.11 / defence 0.78 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.76 / defence 1.25, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 61% | Draw 24% | Wisla Krakow 15%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 58%, Wisla Krakow 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.08 PPG, Wisla Krakow 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.