Wisla Plock 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Wisla Plock take on Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Radomiak Radom at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 August 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Radomiak Radom are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 0.97 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.956 / defence 1.150 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.729 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.025 / away 1.097. Data: 2 Wisla Plock games / 2 Radomiak Radom games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 33% | Draw 37% | Radomiak Radom 30%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 3.03 | Draw 2.70 | Radomiak Radom 3.33. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 33% | Draw 37% | Radomiak Radom 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Wisla Plock 0.97 / Radomiak Radom 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.956 / def 1.150 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.729 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.025 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Radomiak Radom xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Wisla Plock 1 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 33% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 30% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
37%
2.68
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
1.89
0.92
Radomiak Radom xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 13.9 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.5 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.92 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Plock have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Radomiak Radom in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Wisla Plock or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 50% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 50% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Radomiak Radom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 0.97 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.92 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 33% | Draw 37% | Radomiak Radom 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Wisla Plock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 0%, Radomiak Radom 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Wisla Plock winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Plock scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.