Wisla Plock 1-1 Nieciecza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Plock and Nieciecza meet at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Wisla Plock (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this season: 5W 1D 0L from 6 home games — 2.67 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Nieciecza's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza away from home this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Wisla Plock. A 0.50 PPG lead over Nieciecza (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Nieciecza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 50% and Nieciecza 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 58% | Nieciecza 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.72 xG and Nieciecza 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.158 / defence 0.720 | Nieciecza attack 0.768 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.227. Nieciecza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Wisla Plock's defence rating of 0.720 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 13 Wisla Plock games / 12 Nieciecza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 62% | Draw 25% | Nieciecza 13%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Nieciecza 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 17% | Nieciecza 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 62% | Draw 25% | Nieciecza 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 41% | xG Wisla Plock 1.72 / Nieciecza 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.158 / def 0.720 | Nieciecza attack 0.768 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Nieciecza xG
41%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza?
Wisla Plock 1 - 1 Nieciecza.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza part of?
Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 62% chance of winning, Nieciecza a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Wisla Plock and Nieciecza will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Nieciecza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wisla Plock and Nieciecza in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Nieciecza (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Wisla Plock's attack at 1.16x the league average against Nieciecza's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nieciecza's attack (0.77x) against Wisla Plock's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
62%
1.62
25%
3.97
13%
7.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.40
0.68
Nieciecza xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
7.54
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
2%
42.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Nieciecza expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.68 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wisla Plock come into this having played 12 games, going 5W 1D 6L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nieciecza sit at 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Nieciecza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Wisla Plock's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nieciecza have taken 0.40 points per game from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nieciecza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Nieciecza are on 1.33 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza in 75%.
Defensively: Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Nieciecza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Nieciecza in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Nieciecza have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Nieciecza away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.60 PPG; Nieciecza away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Nieciecza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Nieciecza in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Wisla Plock have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wisla Plock have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nieciecza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Wisla Plock
1
Draws
1
Nieciecza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Nieciecza?
From 4 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 2, Nieciecza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Nieciecza last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Nieciecza 1-3 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Nieciecza?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 20%, Nieciecza 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wisla Plock) and 40% (Nieciecza).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Nieciecza in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Nieciecza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Nieciecza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 60% of Nieciecza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Nieciecza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 40% of Nieciecza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Nieciecza tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Nieciecza in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Plock and Nieciecza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 14, as Wisla Plock and Nieciecza drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.72 xG and Nieciecza 0.68 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.16 / defence 0.72 against Nieciecza attack 0.77 / defence 1.21, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 62% | Draw 25% | Nieciecza 13%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 58%, Nieciecza 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Nieciecza's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.