Wisla Plock 3-2 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Gornik Zabrze travel to Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 April 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wisla Plock have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Gornik Zabrze — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wisla Plock 1.30 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wisla Plock have won 0, Gornik Zabrze 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–4 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wisla Plock trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 54% versus Gornik Zabrze 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 50% | Gornik Zabrze 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.26 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 1.023 / defence 1.123 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.874 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 1.108. Data: 26 Wisla Plock games / 26 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 39% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 30%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Gornik Zabrze 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wisla Plock are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wisla Plock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Wisla Plock 40% | Gornik Zabrze 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 39% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Wisla Plock 1.26 / Gornik Zabrze 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 1.023 / def 1.123 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.874 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.041 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Gornik Zabrze xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 4 April 2022 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Wisla Plock 3 - 2 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 39% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 0 | Gornik Zabrze 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (1.02) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.25
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.35
1.09
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 1.09 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock's recent record stands at 11W 3D 12L from 26 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 9L across 26 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.38 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wisla Plock have managed 8W 2D 2L from 12 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gornik Zabrze's away record stands at 4W 3D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.38 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 11W 3D 12L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 10W 7D 9L in their last 26 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.17 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Wisla Plock or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Plock have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
2
Draws
3
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 42%, Gornik Zabrze 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Wisla Plock) and 67% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Wisla Plock's games and 75% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Plock vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 67% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wisla Plock edge out Gornik Zabrze 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Gornik Zabrze 3-2 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.26 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.09 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Wisla Plock beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gornik Zabrze outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 1.02 / defence 1.12 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.87 / defence 1.18, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 39% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 30%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 50%, Gornik Zabrze 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.38 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.