Wisla Plock 0-3 Arka Gdynia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Plock at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Arka Gdynia travel to Orlen Stadion to take on Wisla Plock. The game is scheduled for Monday 9 March 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Plock stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock at Orlen Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Orlen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Arka Gdynia have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arka Gdynia have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Wisla Plock) versus 1.10 (Arka Gdynia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wisla Plock, 1 for Arka Gdynia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Arka Gdynia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Arka Gdynia in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 52% versus Arka Gdynia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wisla Plock 22% | Arka Gdynia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.63 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.798 / defence 0.963 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.624 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.141. Wisla Plock's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arka Gdynia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Wisla Plock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Wisla Plock games / 23 Arka Gdynia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 14%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Arka Gdynia 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wisla Plock at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 40% | Arka Gdynia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Orlen Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 9 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Wisla Plock 1.63 / Arka Gdynia 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.798 / def 0.963 | Arka Gdynia attack 0.624 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Arka Gdynia xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 9 March 2026 at Orlen Stadion.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia?
Wisla Plock 0 - 3 Arka Gdynia.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia being played?
The match is being played at Orlen Stadion.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia part of?
Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 59% chance of winning, Arka Gdynia a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Plock 0W | Draws 0 | Arka Gdynia 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Arka Gdynia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Wisla Plock's attack rating (0.80) and Arka Gdynia's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Arka Gdynia's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.80
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
2.32
0.69
Arka Gdynia xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
3%
35.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.69 for Arka Gdynia, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock come into this having played 23 games, going 8W 9D 6L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Arka Gdynia sit at 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (7W 5D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Arka Gdynia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.43 PPG, Arka Gdynia on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wisla Plock's home form reads 6W 3D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Arka Gdynia have taken 0.09 points per game from 11 outings (0W 1D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arka Gdynia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Arka Gdynia are on 0.96 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Arka Gdynia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 8W 9D 6L in their last 23 games (1.43 PPG), while Arka Gdynia have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Arka Gdynia away?
Wisla Plock's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 1.91 PPG; Arka Gdynia away: 0.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Plock
0
Draws
2
Arka Gdynia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 0, Arka Gdynia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-3 Arka Gdynia.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia?
Arka Gdynia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Wisla Plock 36% BTTS, Arka Gdynia 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Wisla Plock) and 46% (Arka Gdynia).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Wisla Plock have failed to score in 36% of games; Arka Gdynia in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Arka Gdynia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Arka Gdynia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 27% of Arka Gdynia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 46% of Arka Gdynia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Arka Gdynia tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Arka Gdynia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arka Gdynia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arka Gdynia beat Wisla Plock 0-3 at Orlen Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 1.63 xG and Arka Gdynia 0.69 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Wisla Plock fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Arka Gdynia outscored their 0.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Arka Gdynia attack 0.62 / defence 1.42, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 59% | Draw 26% | Arka Gdynia 14%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Arka Gdynia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 22%, Arka Gdynia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.43 PPG, Arka Gdynia 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arka Gdynia win broke the near-deadlock. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.