Wisla Krakow 4-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze meet at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wisla Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Krakow have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Gornik Zabrze arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Wisla Krakow 1W, Gornik Zabrze 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Wisla Krakow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Wisla Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gornik Zabrze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Krakow 48% versus Gornik Zabrze 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Krakow 52% | Gornik Zabrze 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 1.20 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.854 / defence 1.169 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.961 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.098. Gornik Zabrze bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Wisla Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Wisla Krakow games / 27 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 34% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 36%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Gornik Zabrze 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 30% | Gornik Zabrze 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 34% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Wisla Krakow 1.20 / Gornik Zabrze 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.854 / def 1.169 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.961 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Gornik Zabrze xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What was the final score in Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze?
Wisla Krakow 4 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 34% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (1 meetings): Wisla Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | Gornik Zabrze 0W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wisla Krakow's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.96x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
34%
2.92
30%
3.36
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.43
1.23
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.01
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.23 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Wisla Krakow have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 6W 7D 14L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 10W 7D 10L from 27 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gornik Zabrze are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wisla Krakow.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wisla Krakow have posted 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 3D 6L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.41 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze in 67%.
Last 27 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 6W 7D 14L in their last 27 games (0.93 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 10W 7D 10L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 1.23 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
0
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Wisla Krakow 4-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze?
Wisla Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 31%, Gornik Zabrze 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Wisla Krakow) and 69% (Gornik Zabrze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Wisla Krakow have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 77% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 69% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wisla Krakow run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Gornik Zabrze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Krakow beat Gornik Zabrze 4-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Krakow 1.20 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.23 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Wisla Krakow beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Krakow attack 0.85 / defence 1.17 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.96 / defence 1.34, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Krakow 34% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 36%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Wisla Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Krakow 52%, Gornik Zabrze 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Wisla Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.