Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Wisla Krakow take on Gornik Zabrze.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze meet at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wisla Krakow's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 2D 2L from 9 games (1.89 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.89 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wisla Krakow have posted 5W 0D 0L at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.89 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Gornik Zabrze (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Gornik Zabrze arrive in superior form — a 0.61 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.89) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Wisla Krakow 2W, Gornik Zabrze 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wisla Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gornik Zabrze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 78% and Gornik Zabrze 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wisla Krakow 67% | Gornik Zabrze 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 0.93 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 1.024 / defence 0.791 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.978 / defence 0.592. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.306. Gornik Zabrze's defence strength of 0.592 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Wisla Krakow's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 9 Wisla Krakow games / 43 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 28% | Draw 39% | Gornik Zabrze 32%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 3.57 | Draw 2.56 | Gornik Zabrze 3.12. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wisla Krakow 60% | Gornik Zabrze 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 28% | Draw 39% | Gornik Zabrze 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 43% | xG Wisla Krakow 0.93 / Gornik Zabrze 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 1.024 / def 0.791 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.978 / def 0.592 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gornik Zabrze xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 28% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 32% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (3 meetings): Wisla Krakow 2W | Draws 0 | Gornik Zabrze 1W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.89 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wisla Krakow's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (0.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. Flip it around — Gornik Zabrze's attack (0.98x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.55
39%
2.53
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
1.94
1.01
Gornik Zabrze xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.53
39%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 14.5 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.01 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Wisla Krakow have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 5W 2D 2L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 7W 1D 1L from 9 games, 2.44 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gornik Zabrze are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Wisla Krakow.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wisla Krakow have posted 3.00 PPG from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Wisla Krakow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 away games — 2.60 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Krakow are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.78 scored and 0.89 conceded. Wisla Krakow's scoring rate against Gornik Zabrze's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Gornik Zabrze in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 7W 1D 1L in their last 9 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Krakow at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Wisla Krakow's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Krakow at home: 3.00 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Wisla Krakow or Gornik Zabrze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wisla Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Gornik Zabrze in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Krakow won 4-1 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
1
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze?
From 3 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze?
Wisla Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Krakow 60%, Gornik Zabrze 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Wisla Krakow) and 40% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Wisla Krakow keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Gornik Zabrze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Wisla Krakow's recent matches and 40% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Wisla Krakow's recent games and 40% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Krakow and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.