Widzew Łódź 2-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wisla Plock at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 7 as Widzew Łódź welcome Wisla Plock to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 outings — a 1.17 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Plock's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Wisla Plock's 1.90 PPG return is 0.73 points per game ahead of Widzew Łódź's 1.17 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Widzew Łódź in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Wisla Plock in-play and half-time data (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Wisla Plock 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Widzew Łódź 50% | Wisla Plock 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.15 xG and Wisla Plock 2.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.881 / defence 1.432 | Wisla Plock attack 1.418 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.195. Wisla Plock have an above-average attack strength of 1.418 — the away xG of 2.43 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Widzew Łódź games / 40 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 16% | Draw 18% | Wisla Plock 66%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 6.25 | Draw 5.56 | Wisla Plock 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Plock (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Plock as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Widzew Łódź 50% | Wisla Plock 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 16% | Draw 18% | Wisla Plock 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.15 / Wisla Plock 2.43 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.881 / def 1.432 | Wisla Plock attack 1.418 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Wisla Plock (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
2.43
Wisla Plock xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Widzew Łódź 2 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 16% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 66% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Wisla Plock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.88x the league average against Wisla Plock's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 2.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 0-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Plock Win
16%
6.11
18%
5.54
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.3%
Away win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
3.57
2.43
Wisla Plock xG
6.11
16%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
9%
11.31
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
1%
69.11
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 2.43 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 0L across 6 games — 2.67 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wisla Plock by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Widzew Łódź heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 3.00 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Plock in 67%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 5W 1D 0L in their last 6 (2.67 PPG).
Have Widzew Łódź or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
0
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
From 5 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Wisla Plock have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 50%, Wisla Plock 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Widzew Łódź and 100% for Wisla Plock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Widzew Łódź's games and 67% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 100% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Widzew Łódź defy the odds to beat Wisla Plock 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Wisla Plock 2-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.15 xG and Wisla Plock 2.43 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wisla Plock landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.88 / defence 1.43 against Wisla Plock attack 1.42 / defence 1.02, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 16% | Draw 18% | Wisla Plock 66%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Widzew Łódź win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Wisla Plock 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wisla Plock arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Widzew Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Widzew Łódź scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Wisla Plock managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.