Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Widzew Łódź welcome Raków Częstochowa to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź at this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 0.90 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Widzew Łódź.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Raków Częstochowa 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Raków Częstochowa 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.27 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.787 / defence 0.984 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.019 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Widzew Łódź's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Widzew Łódź games / 45 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 32% | Draw 34% | Raków Częstochowa 35%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Raków Częstochowa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 32% | Draw 34% | Raków Częstochowa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 57% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.27 / Raków Częstochowa 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.787 / def 0.984 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.019 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Raków Częstochowa xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 32% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 35% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (8 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 3 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
32%
3.17
34%
2.96
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.61
1.34
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.17
32%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
10%
10.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.34 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 13D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.36 PPG from 45 outings (18W 7D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.16 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 8W 8D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (9W 3D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 games (1.16 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 18W 7D 20L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.45 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Widzew Łódź at 59%, Raków Częstochowa at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Widzew Łódź) and 64% (Raków Częstochowa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Widzew Łódź's games and 73% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 64% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.