Widzew Łódź 1-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź plays host to Widzew Łódź versus Radomiak Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź's home record at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź: 4W 1D 2L from 7 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Widzew Łódź's 2.20 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Radomiak Radom's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 33% versus Radomiak Radom 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 53% | Radomiak Radom 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.18 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.972 / defence 0.825 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.842 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.215. Data: 15 Widzew Łódź games / 49 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 26%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Radomiak Radom 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 43% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.18 / Radomiak Radom 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.972 / def 0.825 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.842 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Radomiak Radom xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 3 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 44% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.97x the league average against Radomiak Radom's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.84x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.33
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.02
0.84
Radomiak Radom xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
8%
12.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.84 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 8W 2D 5L from 15 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 7L across 15 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.33 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 3W 1D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.13 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 8W 2D 5L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.86 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 0-3 on 2 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Radomiak Radom 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Radomiak Radom see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 43%, Radomiak Radom 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Widzew Łódź) and 43% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 43% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 43% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Widzew Łódź.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Widzew Łódź 1-3 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.18 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.84 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.97 / defence 0.82 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 44% | Draw 30% | Radomiak Radom 26%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Radomiak Radom win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 53%, Radomiak Radom 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.73 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.