Widzew Łódź 3-1 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce meet at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Widzew Łódź (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Widzew Łódź have posted 5W 0D 5L at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Korona Kielce have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Widzew Łódź. A 0.60 PPG lead over Korona Kielce (1.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Widzew Łódź lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Widzew Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 52% versus Korona Kielce 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 49% | Korona Kielce 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.36 xG and Korona Kielce 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.954 / defence 1.049 | Korona Kielce attack 0.802 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.125. Data: 59 Widzew Łódź games / 59 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 23%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Korona Kielce 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 40% | Korona Kielce 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.36 / Korona Kielce 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.954 / def 1.049 | Korona Kielce attack 0.802 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Korona Kielce xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Widzew Łódź 3 - 1 Korona Kielce.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 43% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
Record (3 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 1W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Korona Kielce (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.80x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
43%
2.30
33%
3.00
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.30
0.95
Korona Kielce xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 0.95 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 13D 26L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.10 PPG from 59 outings (15W 20D 24L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.10 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 12W 3D 14L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.34 PPG return.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 0.76 points per game from 29 outings (4W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Widzew Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.14 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 20W 13D 26L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 15W 20D 24L in their last 59 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Korona Kielce away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.34 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Korona Kielce have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 0-3 on 27 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
5
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 48%, Korona Kielce 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Widzew Łódź) and 45% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Korona Kielce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 59% of Korona Kielce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 45% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Korona Kielce 3-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.36 xG and Korona Kielce 0.95 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Widzew Łódź beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.95 / defence 1.05 against Korona Kielce attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 43% | Draw 33% | Korona Kielce 23%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 49%, Korona Kielce 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.24 PPG, Korona Kielce 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Widzew Łódź win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.