Warta Poznań 0-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii to take on Warta Poznań. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Warta Poznań stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii this season.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Warta Poznań 1.90 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Warta Poznań have won 0, Raków Częstochowa 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 42% versus Raków Częstochowa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 31% | Raków Częstochowa 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.98 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.982 / defence 1.201 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.918 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.055. Data: 26 Warta Poznań games / 26 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 39%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Raków Częstochowa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Warta Poznań 60% | Raków Częstochowa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Warta Poznań 0.98 / Raków Częstochowa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.982 / def 1.201 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.918 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Raków Częstochowa xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa?
Warta Poznań 0 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 29% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (1 meetings): Warta Poznań 0W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 1W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Warta Poznań's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
29%
3.39
32%
3.14
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.14
1.16
Raków Częstochowa xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.6 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.16 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 7W 9D 10L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 15W 7D 4L from 26 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Warta Poznań.
Venue Form
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 7W 3D 3L from 13 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.77 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 15W 7D 4L in their last 26 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.15 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
3
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 1, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Warta Poznań 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 62%, Raków Częstochowa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Warta Poznań) and 54% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 31%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Warta Poznań's games and 54% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Warta Poznań vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 54% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Warta Poznań 0-2 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.98 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.16 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Warta Poznań fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.98 / defence 1.20 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.92 / defence 0.96, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 29% | Draw 32% | Raków Częstochowa 39%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 31%, Raków Częstochowa 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.