Warta Poznań 2-3 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Warta Poznań host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Warta Poznań — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Warta Poznań have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Piast Gliwice — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Warta Poznań, 0 for Piast Gliwice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Warta Poznań winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 37% versus Piast Gliwice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 27% | Piast Gliwice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.83 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.875 / defence 1.094 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.889 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.051 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Warta Poznań games / 30 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 26% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 44%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Piast Gliwice 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Warta Poznań 60% | Piast Gliwice 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 26% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Warta Poznań 0.83 / Piast Gliwice 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.875 / def 1.094 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.889 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.051 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Piast Gliwice xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Warta Poznań 2 - 3 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 26% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice?
Record (1 meetings): Warta Poznań 1W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 0W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Warta Poznań's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
26%
3.84
30%
3.31
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.00
1.17
Piast Gliwice xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
8%
12.37
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 15.8 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.17 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 9W 9D 12L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 13W 8D 9L from 30 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Warta Poznań on 1.20 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.20 PPG from 15 outings (4W 6D 5L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 5D 4L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Warta Poznań are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.30 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 13W 8D 9L in their last 30 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.20 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Warta Poznań
2
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when Piast Gliwice 2-0 Warta Poznań.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 53%, Piast Gliwice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Warta Poznań and 27% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 40%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 40% of games; Piast Gliwice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 33% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 27% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Warta Poznań 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Warta Poznań 2-3 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.83 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.17 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Warta Poznań beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.89 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 26% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 44%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 27%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Warta Poznań 1.20 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.