Warta Poznań 0-2 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Lechia Gdansk travel to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii to take on Warta Poznań. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Warta Poznań stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's home record at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii: 0W 4D 2L from 6 Ekstraklasa appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk away from home this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lechia Gdansk — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Warta Poznań trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 25% versus Lechia Gdansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Warta Poznań 25% | Lechia Gdansk 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.57 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.484 / defence 1.064 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.029 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.230. Warta Poznań's attack strength of 0.484 is below the league average — the 0.57 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Warta Poznań games / 12 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 16% | Draw 29% | Lechia Gdansk 56%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | Lechia Gdansk 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Lechia Gdansk (56%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Warta Poznań's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: Warta Poznań 33% | Lechia Gdansk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 16% | Draw 29% | Lechia Gdansk 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 32% | xG Warta Poznań 0.57 / Lechia Gdansk 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.484 / def 1.064 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.029 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.57
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Lechia Gdansk xG
32%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk?
Warta Poznań 0 - 2 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 16% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 56% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Warta Poznań and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Lechia Gdansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Warta Poznań and Lechia Gdansk in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Warta Poznań's attack rating (0.48) and Lechia Gdansk's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.1%), 0-2 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
16%
6.43
29%
3.47
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
0 – 2
13.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.57
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
1.92
1.35
Lechia Gdansk xG
6.43
16%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
56%
1.77
Win to Nil
4%
24.73
31%
3.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 19.8 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 0.57 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.35 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Warta Poznań come into this having played 12 games, going 1W 5D 6L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (6W 5D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Warta Poznań's home form reads 0W 4D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Warta Poznań are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.75 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Warta Poznań have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 1W 5D 6L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 6W 5D 1L in their last 12 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Lechia Gdansk's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 0.67 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Warta Poznań
1
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Lechia Gdansk?
From 4 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 1, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when Warta Poznań 2-0 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Lechia Gdansk?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 33%, Lechia Gdansk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Warta Poznań and 33% for Lechia Gdansk.
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk in 33%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Warta Poznań's recent matches and 50% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Warta Poznań vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 33% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Warta Poznań 0-2 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.57 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.35 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.48 / defence 1.06 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 16% | Draw 29% | Lechia Gdansk 56%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 25%, Lechia Gdansk 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.