Warta Poznań 1-2 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Lech Poznan travel to Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii to take on Warta Poznań. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Warta Poznań — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Warta Poznań have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lech Poznan stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Lech Poznan's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lech Poznan are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Warta Poznań register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lech Poznan in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Warta Poznań, 1 for Lech Poznan and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Lech Poznan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Lech Poznan in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 38% versus Lech Poznan 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 31% | Lech Poznan 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 0.99 xG and Lech Poznan 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 0.960 / defence 1.228 | Lech Poznan attack 0.961 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.264. Data: 32 Warta Poznań games / 32 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 24% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 48%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Lech Poznan 2.08. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lech Poznan at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Warta Poznań 70% | Lech Poznan 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 24% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Warta Poznań 0.99 / Lech Poznan 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 0.960 / def 1.228 | Lech Poznan attack 0.961 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Lech Poznan xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan?
Warta Poznań 1 - 2 Lech Poznan.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan part of?
Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 24% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Warta Poznań and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Lech Poznan?
Record (1 meetings): Warta Poznań 0W | Draws 0 | Lech Poznan 1W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Lech Poznan in?
Warta Poznań (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Lech Poznan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Warta Poznań's attack rating (0.96) and Lech Poznan's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Warta Poznań's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
24%
4.17
28%
3.53
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.48
1.49
Lech Poznan xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
5%
18.55
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.49 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Warta Poznań have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 10W 9D 13L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 20W 8D 4L from 32 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Warta Poznań.
Venue Form
On home soil, Warta Poznań have posted 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 8W 5D 3L from 16 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.97 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 20W 8D 4L in their last 32 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.12 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lech Poznan have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Warta Poznań's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Warta Poznań
0
Draws
6
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Lech Poznan?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 0, Lech Poznan have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Lech Poznan 2-0 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 56%, Lech Poznan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Warta Poznań) and 50% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 31%; Warta Poznań have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Warta Poznań's games and 56% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Warta Poznań vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 50% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Warta Poznań and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Warta Poznań have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lech Poznan edge out Warta Poznań 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Warta Poznań 1-2 at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 0.99 xG and Lech Poznan 1.49 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 0.96 / defence 1.23 against Lech Poznan attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 24% | Draw 28% | Lech Poznan 48%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 31%, Lech Poznan 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.