Stal Mielec 1-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 27 as Stal Mielec welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Stal Mielec have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's home record at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Stal Mielec) versus 1.20 (Cracovia Krakow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stal Mielec have won 0, Cracovia Krakow 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Stal Mielec trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 58% versus Cracovia Krakow 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 42% | Cracovia Krakow 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.16 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.882 / defence 1.237 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.732 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.046. Cracovia Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Stal Mielec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Stal Mielec games / 26 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 39% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 28%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Cracovia Krakow 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stal Mielec at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Stal Mielec 50% | Cracovia Krakow 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 39% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Stal Mielec 1.16 / Cracovia Krakow 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.882 / def 1.237 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.732 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Cracovia Krakow xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Stal Mielec 1 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 39% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 0W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 0.88x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
39%
2.56
33%
3.06
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
2.10
0.95
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.95 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stal Mielec's recent record stands at 8W 9D 9L from 26 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 10L across 26 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.27 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stal Mielec have managed 6W 3D 3L from 12 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Stal Mielec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 3W 4D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 8W 9D 9L in their last 26 games (1.27 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 8D 10L in their last 26 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.75 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
5
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 50%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stal Mielec) and 42% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 42% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cracovia Krakow defy the odds to beat Stal Mielec 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Stal Mielec 1-2 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.16 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.95 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.88 / defence 1.24 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.73 / defence 1.25, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 39% | Draw 33% | Cracovia Krakow 28%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 42%, Cracovia Krakow 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.27 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.