Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Slask Wroclaw take on Widzew Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slask Wroclaw host Widzew Łódź at Tarczyński Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tarczyński Arena, Slask Wroclaw have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slask Wroclaw at 1.60 PPG versus Widzew Łódź's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Widzew Łódź 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Slask Wroclaw winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 54% versus Widzew Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 41% | Widzew Łódź 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.01 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.806 / defence 0.833 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.027 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.194. Data: 56 Slask Wroclaw games / 56 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 33% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 33%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Widzew Łódź 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Slask Wroclaw 50% | Widzew Łódź 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 33% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.01 / Widzew Łódź 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 0.806 / def 0.833 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.027 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Widzew Łódź xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź?
Slask Wroclaw 2 - 1 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 33% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Widzew Łódź?
Record (3 meetings): Slask Wroclaw 1W | Draws 1 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Widzew Łódź in?
Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slask Wroclaw's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
34%
2.90
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
2.04
1.02
Widzew Łódź xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.02 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slask Wroclaw come into this having played 56 games, going 21W 17D 18L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.23 PPG from 56 outings (19W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.43 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slask Wroclaw's home form reads 11W 9D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 1.18 points per game from 28 outings (8W 9D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.18 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 21W 17D 18L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 19W 12D 25L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.50 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slask Wroclaw and Widzew Łódź runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Feb 2025, when Slask Wroclaw won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Slask Wroclaw
2
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Widzew Łódź?
From 6 meetings on record, Slask Wroclaw have won 3, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 3-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Widzew Łódź?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 61%, Widzew Łódź 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Slask Wroclaw) and 39% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slask Wroclaw play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Slask Wroclaw's games and 54% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slask Wroclaw vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 39% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Slask Wroclaw have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slask Wroclaw defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Widzew Łódź 2-1 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.01 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.02 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 0.81 / defence 0.83 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.03 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 33% | Draw 34% | Widzew Łódź 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 41%, Widzew Łódź 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.43 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.