Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa host Warta Poznań at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 July 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Raków Częstochowa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Raków Częstochowa at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Warta Poznań haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Warta Poznań away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Raków Częstochowa 2.10 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Raków Częstochowa, 0 for Warta Poznań and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Warta Poznań in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 50% versus Warta Poznań 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 56% | Warta Poznań 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.26 xG and Warta Poznań 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.097 / defence 0.859 | Warta Poznań attack 1.022 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.222. Warta Poznań's defence strength of 0.789 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Raków Częstochowa games / 34 Warta Poznań games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 29% | Warta Poznań 31%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Warta Poznań 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 60% | Warta Poznań 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Friday 15 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 29% | Warta Poznań 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.26 / Warta Poznań 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.097 / def 0.859 | Warta Poznań attack 1.022 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Warta Poznań xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 15 July 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 40% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań?
Record (2 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 2W | Draws 0 | Warta Poznań 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.10x the league average against Warta Poznań's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.42
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.34
1.07
Warta Poznań xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.07 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 34 games, going 20W 9D 5L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. Raków Częstochowa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Warta Poznań sit at 1.24 PPG from 34 outings (11W 9D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. Warta Poznań haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 10W 6D 1L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Warta Poznań have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (7W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.03 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Pre-Season
Warta Poznań
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 20W 9D 5L in their last 34 games (2.03 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 11W 9D 14L in their last 34 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Warta Poznań away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.12 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
1
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 3, Warta Poznań have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Warta Poznań 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 53%, Warta Poznań 18% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Raków Częstochowa) and 29% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 41%; Warta Poznań in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 18% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 29% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Raków Częstochowa edge out Warta Poznań 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Warta Poznań 1-0 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.26 xG and Warta Poznań 1.07 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Warta Poznań landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 0.86 against Warta Poznań attack 1.02 / defence 0.79, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 40% | Draw 29% | Warta Poznań 31%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 56%, Warta Poznań 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.