Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Raków Częstochowa at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków plays host to Raków Częstochowa versus Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Raków Częstochowa have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Raków Częstochowa have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Raków Częstochowa against 1.90 for Legia Warszawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Raków Częstochowa lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus Legia Warszawa 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 60% | Legia Warszawa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.56 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.319 / defence 0.912 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.796 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.063. Raków Częstochowa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 25 Raków Częstochowa games / 25 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 18%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Raków Częstochowa (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 30% | Legia Warszawa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.56 / Legia Warszawa 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.319 / def 0.912 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.796 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Legia Warszawa xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 55% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
Record (1 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 1W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.32x the league average against Legia Warszawa's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (0.80x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.69
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.33
0.77
Legia Warszawa xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
4%
26.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.77 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 15W 6D 4L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 10W 1D 14L from 25 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Legia Warszawa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 2.25 PPG from 12 outings (8W 3D 1L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 1D 8L from 12 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.20 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 15W 6D 4L in their last 25 games (2.04 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 10W 1D 14L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.25 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 4-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
4
Draws
1
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Legia Warszawa have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 42%, Legia Warszawa 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Raków Częstochowa) and 42% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 42% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 42% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 26, as Raków Częstochowa and Legia Warszawa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.56 xG and Legia Warszawa 0.77 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.32 / defence 0.91 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 55% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 18%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 60%, Legia Warszawa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.