Puszcza Niepołomice 1-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 34 as Puszcza Niepołomice welcome Piast Gliwice to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Puszcza Niepołomice stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Puszcza Niepołomice) versus 1.80 (Piast Gliwice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Puszcza Niepołomice, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 64% versus Piast Gliwice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Piast Gliwice 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.21 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.860 / defence 1.064 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.895 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.113. Data: 33 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 67 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 38% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 30%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Piast Gliwice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Puszcza Niepołomice as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Puszcza Niepołomice 70% | Piast Gliwice 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 38% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.21 / Piast Gliwice 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.860 / def 1.064 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.895 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Piast Gliwice xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice?
Puszcza Niepołomice 1 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 38% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice?
Record (1 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice's attack at 0.86x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Puszcza Niepołomice's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
38%
2.67
33%
3.06
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.27
1.06
Piast Gliwice xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.06 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record stands at 8W 13D 12L from 33 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 8L across 33 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Puszcza Niepołomice on 1.12 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Puszcza Niepołomice have managed 6W 8D 2L from 16 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 2W 9D 5L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Puszcza Niepołomice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.15 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 8W 13D 12L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 9W 16D 8L in their last 33 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.62 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Puszcza Niepołomice's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
1
Draws
1
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice?
Puszcza Niepołomice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 75%, Piast Gliwice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Puszcza Niepołomice and 25% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 31%; Piast Gliwice in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Piast Gliwice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 50% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 25% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Puszcza Niepołomice edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.21 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.06 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 38% | Draw 33% | Piast Gliwice 30%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 39%, Piast Gliwice 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.12 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Puszcza Niepołomice win broke the near-deadlock. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.