Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Pogon Szczecin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Piast Gliwice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 65% versus Piast Gliwice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 56% | Piast Gliwice 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.67 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.286 / defence 0.961 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.894 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.163. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Pogon Szczecin games / 46 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 53% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 23%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Piast Gliwice 4.35. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Piast Gliwice 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 53% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.67 / Piast Gliwice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.286 / def 0.961 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.894 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Pogon Szczecin 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 53% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.12
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.67
1.00
Piast Gliwice xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
4%
23.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.00 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 24W 14D 8L from 46 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 17L across 46 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Piast Gliwice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 15W 5D 3L from 23 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 9W 6D 8L across 23 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.24 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 24W 14D 8L in their last 46 games (1.87 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 11D 17L in their last 46 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.17 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Piast Gliwice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 74%, Piast Gliwice 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (Pogon Szczecin) and 26% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 35%; Piast Gliwice in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 74% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 30% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 78% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 26% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 13, as Pogon Szczecin and Piast Gliwice drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.67 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.29 / defence 0.96 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 53% | Draw 24% | Piast Gliwice 23%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 56%, Piast Gliwice 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.