Pogon Szczecin 0-3 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Lech Poznan travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 8W 2D 0L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lech Poznan — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Pogon Szczecin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pogon Szczecin register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Lech Poznan in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Pogon Szczecin have won 0, Lech Poznan 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 59% versus Lech Poznan 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 36% | Lech Poznan 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.85 xG and Lech Poznan 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.331 / defence 1.092 | Lech Poznan attack 0.977 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.137. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lech Poznan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Pogon Szczecin games / 22 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 24% | Lech Poznan 24%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Lech Poznan 4.17. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 80% | Lech Poznan 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 24% | Lech Poznan 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.85 / Lech Poznan 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.331 / def 1.092 | Lech Poznan attack 0.977 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Lech Poznan xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Pogon Szczecin 0 - 3 Lech Poznan.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 52% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
Record (1 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 0W | Draws 1 | Lech Poznan 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Lech Poznan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Lech Poznan's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.25
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.07
1.21
Lech Poznan xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
4%
26.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.21 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 13W 7D 2L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan's form line: 13W 6D 3L from 22 games, 2.05 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pogon Szczecin on 2.09 PPG, Lech Poznan on 2.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.60 PPG from 10 outings (8W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.09 PPG overall — Pogon Szczecin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 2.05 scored and 0.77 conceded. Pogon Szczecin's scoring rate against Lech Poznan's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 13W 7D 2L in their last 22 games (2.09 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 13W 6D 3L in their last 22 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Lech Poznan away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.60 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Pogon Szczecin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pogon Szczecin
4
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 1, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 80%, Lech Poznan at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Pogon Szczecin) and 50% (Lech Poznan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 60% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 50% of Lech Poznan's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lech Poznan run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pogon Szczecin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Pogon Szczecin 0-3 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.85 xG and Lech Poznan 1.21 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Lech Poznan outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.33 / defence 1.09 against Lech Poznan attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 52% | Draw 24% | Lech Poznan 24%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Lech Poznan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 36%, Lech Poznan 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 2.09 PPG, Lech Poznan 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lech Poznan win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.