Piast Gliwice 0-1 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice host Warta Poznań at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.43 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Warta Poznań — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's away record: 1W 1D 4L from 6 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Piast Gliwice carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 69% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 54% versus Warta Poznań 23%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 38% | Warta Poznań 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.68 xG and Warta Poznań 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.107 / defence 1.357 | Warta Poznań attack 0.648 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.245. Warta Poznań bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Piast Gliwice games / 13 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 50% | Draw 27% | Warta Poznań 23%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Warta Poznań 4.35. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 71% | Warta Poznań 17%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 50% | Draw 27% | Warta Poznań 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.68 / Warta Poznań 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.107 / def 1.357 | Warta Poznań attack 0.648 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Warta Poznań xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 1 Warta Poznań.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 50% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Warta Poznań (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Warta Poznań's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.71
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.77
1.10
Warta Poznań xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
4%
22.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.10 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 5W 3D 5L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań's form line: 1W 5D 7L from 13 games, 0.62 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Piast Gliwice are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Warta Poznań.
Venue Form
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L).
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 0.62 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Warta Poznań in 23%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Warta Poznań away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.67 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
2
Draws
2
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Warta Poznań have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when Piast Gliwice 2-0 Warta Poznań.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 67%, Warta Poznań 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Piast Gliwice) and 50% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 17% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 50% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Warta Poznań defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Piast Gliwice 0-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.68 xG and Warta Poznań 1.10 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.11 / defence 1.36 against Warta Poznań attack 0.65 / defence 1.24, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 50% | Draw 27% | Warta Poznań 23%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Warta Poznań win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 38%, Warta Poznań 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.62. Form was overturned, with Warta Poznań winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.