Piast Gliwice 1-2 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Motor Lublin travel to Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 February 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Piast Gliwice have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Motor Lublin have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Motor Lublin have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Piast Gliwice are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 1 for Motor Lublin and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Motor Lublin in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Motor Lublin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 36% | Motor Lublin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.52 xG and Motor Lublin 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.870 / defence 0.767 | Motor Lublin attack 0.978 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.163. Motor Lublin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Piast Gliwice's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Piast Gliwice games / 55 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 51% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 20%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Motor Lublin 5.00. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 30% | Motor Lublin 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 51% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.52 / Motor Lublin 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.870 / def 0.767 | Motor Lublin attack 0.978 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Motor Lublin xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 2 Motor Lublin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 51% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin?
Record (3 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 1 | Motor Lublin 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Motor Lublin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.87) and Motor Lublin's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Motor Lublin's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.42
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.40
0.87
Motor Lublin xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
4%
23.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.87 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 18W 17D 20L from 55 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Motor Lublin, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 20L across 55 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.29 PPG, Motor Lublin on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 9W 11D 7L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Motor Lublin's away record stands at 9W 6D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.38 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Motor Lublin in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Motor Lublin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 17D 20L in their last 55 games (1.29 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 19W 16D 20L in their last 55 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Motor Lublin away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.41 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Motor Lublin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Motor Lublin in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2025, when Piast Gliwice won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Motor Lublin specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
1
Draws
2
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin?
From 5 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Motor Lublin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Motor Lublin 0-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 37%, Motor Lublin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Piast Gliwice) and 63% (Motor Lublin).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 37% of games; Motor Lublin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Motor Lublin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 56% of Motor Lublin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 63% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Motor Lublin defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin beat Piast Gliwice 1-2 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.52 xG and Motor Lublin 0.87 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Motor Lublin outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.87 / defence 0.77 against Motor Lublin attack 0.98 / defence 1.22, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 51% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 20%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Motor Lublin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 36%, Motor Lublin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.29 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Motor Lublin win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.