Nieciecza 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nieciecza at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica to face Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 11 March 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Nieciecza (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nieciecza's home record at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Nieciecza against 0.80 for Zaglebie Lubin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nieciecza lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Nieciecza — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nieciecza 65% versus Zaglebie Lubin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 56% | Zaglebie Lubin 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.42 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.928 / defence 1.188 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.661 / defence 1.403. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.039. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.403 — this is suppressing Nieciecza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Nieciecza games / 24 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 50% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 20%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Zaglebie Lubin 5.00. Nieciecza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nieciecza are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nieciecza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Nieciecza 70% | Zaglebie Lubin 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 50% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Nieciecza 1.42 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.928 / def 1.188 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.661 / def 1.403 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Nieciecza (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Zaglebie Lubin xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Nieciecza 0 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 50% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nieciecza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nieciecza and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (1 meetings): Nieciecza 0W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 1W.
What form are Nieciecza and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Nieciecza (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nieciecza's attack at 0.93x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.66x) against Nieciecza's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nieciecza Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.35
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.24
0.81
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
5%
20.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Nieciecza and 0.81 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nieciecza come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 7D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.09 PPG from 23 outings (7W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Nieciecza against 1.09 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nieciecza's home form reads 4W 3D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Nieciecza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nieciecza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nieciecza are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.09 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nieciecza and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 7W 4D 12L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Nieciecza's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 1.36 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nieciecza have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nieciecza
1
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 4 meetings on record, Nieciecza have won 1, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 Nieciecza.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nieciecza see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nieciecza 73%, Zaglebie Lubin 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Nieciecza and 64% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 36%; Zaglebie Lubin in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nieciecza play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Nieciecza's recent matches and 36% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nieciecza vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Nieciecza's matches and 64% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Nieciecza and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Nieciecza have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nieciecza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Nieciecza 0-2 at Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.42 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.81 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nieciecza fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.66 / defence 1.40, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 50% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 20%, with Nieciecza to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 56%, Zaglebie Lubin 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nieciecza 0.96 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Nieciecza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.