Miedz Legnica 2-4 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 15 as Miedz Legnica welcome Pogon Szczecin to Stadion im. Orła Białego. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 October 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Miedz Legnica have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Miedz Legnica at Stadion im. Orła Białego this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 home games — 0.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Miedz Legnica register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Pogon Szczecin in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Miedz Legnica in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pogon Szczecin in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Miedz Legnica 69% and Pogon Szczecin 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Miedz Legnica 54% | Pogon Szczecin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Miedz Legnica 1.10 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Miedz Legnica attack 0.793 / defence 1.234 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.099 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.135. Miedz Legnica's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Miedz Legnica games / 48 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 26% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 47%. Fair-value odds: Miedz Legnica 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Pogon Szczecin 2.13. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Miedz Legnica 67% | Pogon Szczecin 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion im. Orła Białego • Kick-off: Friday 28 Oct 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 26% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Miedz Legnica 1.10 / Pogon Szczecin 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Miedz Legnica attack 0.793 / def 1.234 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.099 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Miedz Legnica xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Pogon Szczecin xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 28 October 2022 at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What was the final score in Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin?
Miedz Legnica 2 - 4 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What competition is Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Miedz Legnica a 26% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Miedz Legnica and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Miedz Legnica and Pogon Szczecin in?
Miedz Legnica (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Miedz Legnica's attack rating (0.79) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Miedz Legnica's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
26%
3.79
27%
3.72
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Miedz Legnica xG
Total xG
2.64
1.54
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
6%
17.67
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Miedz Legnica and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.54 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Miedz Legnica come into this having played 13 games, going 1W 3D 9L for 0.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Miedz Legnica — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Miedz Legnica's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Miedz Legnica are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.54 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Pogon Szczecin in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Miedz Legnica
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Miedz Legnica and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Miedz Legnica have gone 1W 3D 9L in their last 13 games (0.46 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Miedz Legnica at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Miedz Legnica at home: 0.83 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Miedz Legnica and Pogon Szczecin runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Miedz Legnica
0
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Pogon Szczecin?
From 2 meetings on record, Miedz Legnica have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Miedz Legnica and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when Pogon Szczecin 3-2 Miedz Legnica.
Who has won more matches between Miedz Legnica and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Miedz Legnica at 67%, Pogon Szczecin at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Miedz Legnica) and 50% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Miedz Legnica have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Miedz Legnica home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Miedz Legnica play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Miedz Legnica's games and 83% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Miedz Legnica vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Miedz Legnica's recent games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Miedz Legnica and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Miedz Legnica have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Miedz Legnica.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Miedz Legnica 2-4 at Stadion im. Orła Białego, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Miedz Legnica 1.10 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.54 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Miedz Legnica beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.54 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Miedz Legnica attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.10 / defence 1.09, drawn from 13/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Miedz Legnica 26% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 47%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Miedz Legnica 54%, Pogon Szczecin 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Miedz Legnica (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.