Legia Warszawa 1-3 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stal Mielec make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Stal Mielec have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Legia Warszawa's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Stal Mielec's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Legia Warszawa lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 53% versus Stal Mielec 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 56% | Stal Mielec 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.69 xG and Stal Mielec 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.179 / defence 0.860 | Stal Mielec attack 0.708 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.191. Data: 45 Legia Warszawa games / 46 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 59% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 14%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Stal Mielec 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 60% | Stal Mielec 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 59% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.69 / Stal Mielec 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.179 / def 0.860 | Stal Mielec attack 0.708 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Stal Mielec xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 3 Stal Mielec.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 59% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec?
Record (4 meetings): Legia Warszawa 2W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.18x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (0.71x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
59%
1.70
27%
3.70
14%
7.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.42
0.73
Stal Mielec xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
7.09
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
18%
5.42
Win to Nil
28%
3.51
3%
38.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.73 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 25W 11D 9L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec's form line: 13W 13D 19L from 45 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stal Mielec.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 2.38 PPG from 21 outings (15W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 4W 4D 13L from 21 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.09 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 25W 11D 9L in their last 45 games (1.91 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Stal Mielec away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.38 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
2
Draws
3
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Legia Warszawa 2-2 Stal Mielec.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 67%, Stal Mielec 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Legia Warszawa) and 33% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stal Mielec in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 38% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 33% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Legia Warszawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Legia Warszawa 1-3 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.69 xG and Stal Mielec 0.73 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stal Mielec outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.18 / defence 0.86 against Stal Mielec attack 0.71 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 59% | Draw 27% | Stal Mielec 14%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Stal Mielec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 56%, Stal Mielec 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Stal Mielec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.