Legia Warszawa 3-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slask Wroclaw make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 13:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Legia Warszawa have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Legia Warszawa. A 1.20 PPG lead over Slask Wroclaw (1.70 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Legia Warszawa lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 59% versus Slask Wroclaw 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 50% | Slask Wroclaw 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.91 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.267 / defence 0.939 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.764 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.164. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Legia Warszawa games / 56 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 63% | Draw 22% | Slask Wroclaw 16%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Slask Wroclaw 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Legia Warszawa 80% | Slask Wroclaw 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 63% | Draw 22% | Slask Wroclaw 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.91 / Slask Wroclaw 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.267 / def 0.939 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.764 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Slask Wroclaw xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Legia Warszawa 3 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 63% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (7 meetings): Legia Warszawa 2W | Draws 3 | Slask Wroclaw 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.27) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.76x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.64
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.74
0.83
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
2%
42.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.83 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 26W 17D 13L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 20W 17D 19L from 56 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.38 for Slask Wroclaw. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.89 PPG from 28 outings (15W 8D 5L).
On the road, Slask Wroclaw have gone 9W 9D 10L from 28 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.23 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 26W 17D 13L in their last 56 games (1.70 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 20W 17D 19L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.89 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 on 21 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw?
From 9 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 64%, Slask Wroclaw 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Legia Warszawa) and 43% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Slask Wroclaw in 32%; Slask Wroclaw in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Legia Warszawa's games and 46% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 43% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Slask Wroclaw 3-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.91 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.83 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 / defence 0.94 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 63% | Draw 22% | Slask Wroclaw 16%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Slask Wroclaw 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.