Legia Warszawa 4-0 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Motor Lublin at Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Motor Lublin stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Motor Lublin's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Legia Warszawa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Motor Lublin in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 0 for Motor Lublin and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Motor Lublin in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 61% versus Motor Lublin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 48% | Motor Lublin 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.35 xG and Motor Lublin 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.885 / defence 0.791 | Motor Lublin attack 1.198 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.175. Legia Warszawa's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Legia Warszawa games / 67 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 30% | Motor Lublin 29%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Motor Lublin 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 60% | Motor Lublin 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 30% | Motor Lublin 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.35 / Motor Lublin 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.885 / def 0.791 | Motor Lublin attack 1.198 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Motor Lublin xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?
Legia Warszawa 4 - 0 Motor Lublin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 41% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin?
Record (3 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 2 | Motor Lublin 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Motor Lublin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (0.89) and Motor Lublin's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Motor Lublin's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
41%
2.45
30%
3.37
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.46
1.11
Motor Lublin xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.11 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 26W 22D 19L from 67 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Motor Lublin, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 23L across 67 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.49 PPG, Motor Lublin on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 16W 10D 7L from 33 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Motor Lublin's away record stands at 12W 7D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 1.40 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Motor Lublin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 26W 22D 19L in their last 67 games (1.49 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 24W 20D 23L in their last 67 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Motor Lublin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.76 PPG; Motor Lublin away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Motor Lublin specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
2
Draws
0
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin?
From 5 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Motor Lublin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Motor Lublin 2-3 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 58%, Motor Lublin 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Legia Warszawa) and 64% (Motor Lublin).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Motor Lublin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Motor Lublin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Legia Warszawa's games and 58% of Motor Lublin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 64% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Motor Lublin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Motor Lublin 4-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.35 xG and Motor Lublin 1.11 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Motor Lublin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.89 / defence 0.79 against Motor Lublin attack 1.20 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 41% | Draw 30% | Motor Lublin 29%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 48%, Motor Lublin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.49 PPG, Motor Lublin 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.