Legia Warszawa 5-2 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Motor Lublin at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Motor Lublin stand at 1W 3D 1L from 5 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Motor Lublin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Motor Lublin in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 80% versus Motor Lublin 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Legia Warszawa 60% | Motor Lublin 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.39 xG and Motor Lublin 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.190 / defence 1.009 | Motor Lublin attack 0.814 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.071. Data: 40 Legia Warszawa games / 5 Motor Lublin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 31% | Motor Lublin 22%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Motor Lublin 4.55. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 70% | Motor Lublin 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 31% | Motor Lublin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.39 / Motor Lublin 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.190 / def 1.009 | Motor Lublin attack 0.814 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Motor Lublin xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?
Legia Warszawa 5 - 2 Motor Lublin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 47% chance of winning, Motor Lublin a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Motor Lublin (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.19) and Motor Lublin's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Motor Lublin's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
47%
2.13
31%
3.20
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.27
0.88
Motor Lublin xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
5%
18.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.88 for Motor Lublin, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Motor Lublin, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 1L across 5 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Motor Lublin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Motor Lublin heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Motor Lublin are on 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded. Legia Warszawa's scoring rate against Motor Lublin's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Motor Lublin in 20%.
Defensively: Motor Lublin in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Motor Lublin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Motor Lublin have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Legia Warszawa or Motor Lublin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Motor Lublin in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Motor Lublin specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Legia Warszawa
2
Draws
0
Motor Lublin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin?
From 4 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 2, Motor Lublin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa 4-0 Motor Lublin.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Motor Lublin see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 80%, Motor Lublin 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 60% for Legia Warszawa and 0% for Motor Lublin.
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin in 60%; Motor Lublin in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Motor Lublin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Motor Lublin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 20% of Motor Lublin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 0% of Motor Lublin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Motor Lublin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Motor Lublin in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Motor Lublin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Motor Lublin 5-2 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.39 xG and Motor Lublin 0.88 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Motor Lublin outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.19 / defence 1.01 against Motor Lublin attack 0.81 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 47% | Draw 31% | Motor Lublin 22%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 60%, Motor Lublin 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Motor Lublin's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Legia Warszawa scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Motor Lublin scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.