Legia Warszawa 3-2 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Korona Kielce at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Korona Kielce have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.89 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Legia Warszawa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Legia Warszawa have won 0, Korona Kielce 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Korona Kielce trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 47% versus Korona Kielce 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 47% | Korona Kielce 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.78 xG and Korona Kielce 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.137 / defence 0.859 | Korona Kielce attack 0.875 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.260. Korona Kielce bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Legia Warszawa games / 17 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 18%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Korona Kielce 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 50% | Korona Kielce 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.78 / Korona Kielce 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.137 / def 0.859 | Korona Kielce attack 0.875 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Korona Kielce xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Legia Warszawa 3 - 2 Korona Kielce.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 55% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
Record (1 meetings): Legia Warszawa 0W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Korona Kielce (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
55%
1.80
26%
3.81
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.73
0.95
Korona Kielce xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
3%
32.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.95 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 9W 5D 3L from 17 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Korona Kielce, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 10L across 17 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Korona Kielce heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 6W 2D 0L from 8 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Korona Kielce's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.00 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 games (1.88 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Korona Kielce away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.50 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
From 9 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 50%, Korona Kielce 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Legia Warszawa) and 50% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Legia Warszawa's games and 62% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 50% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Korona Kielce 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Korona Kielce 3-2 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.78 xG and Korona Kielce 0.95 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Korona Kielce outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against Korona Kielce attack 0.88 / defence 1.24, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 55% | Draw 26% | Korona Kielce 18%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 47%, Korona Kielce 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.76. That form edge translated into the three points. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.