Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Piast Gliwice make the trip to Stadion Energa Gdańsk to face Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lechia Gdansk have collected 1.43 PPG across 7 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 4D 1L. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 games at Stadion Energa Gdańsk this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Energa Gdańsk. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Stadion Energa Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice (all games): 3W 1D 3L across 7 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.43 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.43 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.43 for Lechia Gdansk, 1.43 for Piast Gliwice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 57% versus Piast Gliwice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lechia Gdansk 43% | Piast Gliwice 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.14 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.131 / defence 1.057 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.832 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.120. Data: 7 Lechia Gdansk games / 7 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 37% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 29%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Piast Gliwice 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 33% | Piast Gliwice 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Energa Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 37% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.14 / Piast Gliwice 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.131 / def 1.057 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.832 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Piast Gliwice xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 37% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.13) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.83x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
37%
2.73
35%
2.88
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.13
0.98
Piast Gliwice xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.98 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 2W 4D 1L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 3L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 1.43 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — Piast Gliwice travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.43 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.33 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 4, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Lechia Gdansk) and 0% (Piast Gliwice) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Lechia Gdansk and 0% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 67%; Piast Gliwice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 0% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 0% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Piast Gliwice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Piast Gliwice 1-0 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.14 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.98 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.83 / defence 0.88, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 37% | Draw 35% | Piast Gliwice 29%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 43%, Piast Gliwice 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.43 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.