Lech Poznan 4-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 84% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Plock make the trip to INEA stadion to face Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Lech Poznan (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lech Poznan have posted 4W 2D 0L at INEA stadion — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 6 home games (83%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at INEA stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wisla Plock's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock away from home this season: 0W 0D 6L from 6 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Lech Poznan's favour (2.30 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Lech Poznan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Wisla Plock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 36% versus Wisla Plock 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 46% | Wisla Plock 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 3.19 xG and Wisla Plock 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.441 / defence 0.735 | Wisla Plock attack 0.917 / defence 1.811. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.181. Lech Poznan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — their λ of 3.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wisla Plock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.811 — this is suppressing Lech Poznan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Lech Poznan's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 11 Lech Poznan games / 11 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 84% | Draw 11% | Wisla Plock 6%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 1.19 | Draw 9.09 | Wisla Plock 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Lech Poznan (84%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lech Poznan as the most likely outcome at 84% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lech Poznan 17% | Wisla Plock 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: INEA stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 84% | Draw 11% | Wisla Plock 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 53% | xG Lech Poznan 3.19 / Wisla Plock 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.441 / def 0.735 | Wisla Plock attack 0.917 / def 1.811 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.19
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Wisla Plock xG
53%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 October 2021 at INEA stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock?
Lech Poznan 4 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at INEA stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock part of?
Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 84% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 6% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Wisla Plock's defensive record (1.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.19. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.92x) against Lech Poznan's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 4-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
84%
1.20
11%
9.48
6%
16.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.19
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
3.99
0.80
Wisla Plock xG
1.20
84%
Home win
9.48
11%
Draw
16.81
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
4%
24.36
Win to Nil
38%
2.65
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 3.19 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.80 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lech Poznan's recent record stands at 7W 3D 1L from 11 games, a 2.18 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 6L across 11 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wisla Plock heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lech Poznan have managed 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 0W 0D 6L across 6 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lech Poznan are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.55 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.64 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; Wisla Plock in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 7W 3D 1L in their last 11 games (2.18 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 4W 1D 6L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Wisla Plock away?
Lech Poznan's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 2.33 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lech Poznan have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lech Poznan
2
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock?
From 6 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Lech Poznan 2-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lech Poznan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 17%, Wisla Plock 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lech Poznan) and 67% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches; Wisla Plock in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Wisla Plock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 67% of Wisla Plock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lech Poznan vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 67% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lech Poznan run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Wisla Plock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lech Poznan beat Wisla Plock 4-1 at INEA stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 3.19 xG and Wisla Plock 0.80 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lech Poznan beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.44 / defence 0.73 against Wisla Plock attack 0.92 / defence 1.81, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 84% | Draw 11% | Wisla Plock 6%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 84%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 46%, Wisla Plock 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 1 against a 0.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.