Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Korona Kielce at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Radomiak Radom make the trip to Exbud Arena to face Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Korona Kielce have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Exbud Arena, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.10 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Korona Kielce have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Radomiak Radom managing just 2 victories and 1 draws shared.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–0 with Korona Kielce winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Korona Kielce and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Korona Kielce 54% and Radomiak Radom 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 36% | Radomiak Radom 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.85 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.883 / defence 0.896 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.828 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Korona Kielce's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Korona Kielce games / 40 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 55% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 17%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Radomiak Radom 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Korona Kielce (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Korona Kielce 80% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.

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