Jagiellonia 1-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Slask Wroclaw travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jagiellonia — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Miejski — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Slask Wroclaw have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Slask Wroclaw away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jagiellonia 1.00 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jagiellonia, 0 for Slask Wroclaw and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Slask Wroclaw in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 67% and Slask Wroclaw 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 60% | Slask Wroclaw 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.17 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.903 / defence 1.144 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.866 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.211. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Jagiellonia games / 30 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 35% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 37%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Slask Wroclaw 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Jagiellonia 70% | Slask Wroclaw 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 35% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Jagiellonia 1.17 / Slask Wroclaw 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.903 / def 1.144 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.866 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Slask Wroclaw xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 35% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (1 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.54
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.37
1.20
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.20 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 8W 10D 12L from 30 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 7W 11D 12L across 30 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.13 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 5W 6D 4L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Current Season
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 8W 10D 12L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 7W 11D 12L in their last 30 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.40 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Jagiellonia
6
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 1, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-1 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jagiellonia at 67%, Slask Wroclaw at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jagiellonia) and 60% (Slask Wroclaw).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jagiellonia's games and 73% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 60% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 31, as Jagiellonia and Slask Wroclaw drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.17 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.20 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.87 / defence 1.24, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 35% | Draw 28% | Slask Wroclaw 37%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 60%, Slask Wroclaw 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.13 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.